Sunday, 29 May 2016

Nigerian Currency Crisis Explained: What We Know And Don’t Know - Bloomberg

Nigeria's central bank may soon give bond and stock investors what they have

been pleading for: a weaker naira.

Governor Godwin Emefiele announced after a meeting of the Monetary Policy

Committee in Abuja, the capital, on Tuesday that a more flexible

foreign-exchange

system would be unveiled "in the coming days." But he gave scant detail and left

plenty of questions. Here are some answers:

What's the problem?

Nigeria has held the naira at 197-199 per dollar since March 2015, even as other

oil exporters from Russia to Colombia and Malaysia let their

currencies drop amid

the slump in crude prices since mid-2014. Foreign reserves dwindled as

the central

bank defended the peg, while foreign investors, fearing a devaluation,

sold Nigerian

stocks and bonds.

While President Muhammadu Buhari and Emefiele argued a devaluation would fuel

inflation, that happened anyway: consumer prices accelerated at the

fastest pace in

six years in April as the black-market naira rate plummeted. To make matters

worse, data released four days before the MPC meeting showed the economy

contracted in the first quarter for the first time since 2004 as the

dollar shortage

curtailed manufacturing. That probably surprised policy makers, prompting the

change of heart, according to Mathias Althoff, a fund manager at Tundra Fonder

AB, which has about $200 million invested in frontier market stocks, including

Nigerian banks.

What happens next?

While Emefiele didn't specify what he meant by "greater flexibility,"

analysts at

Renaissance Capital Ltd. believe the central bank will allocate

dollars at a fixed

rate to strategic industries — like energy and agriculture — while

letting the naira

weaken in the interbank market, where everyone else would buy their foreign

currency. The central bank may also try try to control the new interbank rate by

imposing a trading band of about 5 or 10 percent around it, according

to Althoff.

Will that satisfy investors and save the economy?

If the central bank doesn't allow the naira to drop enough, foreign

investors will

continue to shun Nigerian assets, according to Althoff. The currency

should trade

at around 285-290 per dollar, according to Alan Cameron, an economist at Exotix

Partners LLP. A devaluation won't solve Nigeria's structural economic problems —

which include an over-reliance on oil exports — and may fuel inflation

in the short

term. But it would make Nigerian exports more competitive, curb imports and

encourage foreign investment.

What are the pitfalls?

Most investors would prefer a fully-floating naira, yet doubt that

Nigeria, which has

always had currency controls of some sort, will take that option. And there are

concerns it will be impossible for the central bank to ensure that

only importers

meeting its criteria will be able to buy foreign-exchange at the

discounted official

rate. Many analysts fear that in a nation U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron

described as "fantastically corrupt," access to the official rate will

come down to

political connections.

"The suggestion of a dual exchange rate, with the maintenance of the official

window, is a concern," Razia Khan, head of African research at

Standard Chartered

Plc, said. "This might lead to continued distortions in the market,

ultimately with

pressure on foreign-exchange reserves."

What else should investors watch out for?

Buhari. He has made it clear that he, not Emefiele, is the person in charge of

exchange-rate policy. The president is loath to allow the currency to

drop unless

he's forced to and in February likened such a move to "murder." He has yet to

make any response to the MPC's announcement. And while he is due to make a

speech on May 29, the first anniversary of his coming to power, local

press reports

suggest he will focus on the government's fight against corruption and Boko

Haram's Islamist insurgency.

The central bank has hinted at change before, only to do nothing. "The MPC has

dangled the carrot of exchange rate reform, but without giving any

details of what

a reformed market would look like," Cameron at Exotix said. "To the skeptics

among us, this will simply sound like a re-hash of the same old material we've

been hearing about since December 2015."

Buhari's 7 Biggest Mistakes In His 1st Year-Premium Times

A year ago, Muhammadu Buhari was Nigeria's Rorschach test, upon whom

Nigerians could project their disparate yearnings, following widespread

disenchantment with the administration of Goodluck Jonathan.

To govern, however, is to choose, and the choices the leader of this

diverse entity

called Nigeria makes in a 12-month period, are what has largely revealed his

personality.

Like any new leader, especially one dogged by security threats and plummeting

economic indices, President Buhari wishes he could have had it less tough.

Mr. Buhari stated earlier this year that he wished he hadn't been

elected president

at a time Nigeria was grappling with severe insecurity and low crude

oil prices at

the international markets.

"But I say why me? Why is it that it is when they have spent all the money, when

they made the country insecure that I returned?" Mr. Buhari lamented

in a February

5 interview with Al-Jazeera. "Why didn't I come when the treasury was full? Oil

price was over $140 per barrel and when I came, it slipped down to $30. Why me?"

Although Mr. Buhari still frequently blames his predecessor for

running the country

aground, bequeathing only a "virtually empty" treasury to him, he also committed

ample embarrassing gaffes in terms of policy pronouncements and his deliberate

indifference to the public mood.

Since Mr. Buhari did not participate in any debate during the campaign–and the

number of times he made stump speeches for himself could be counted on

fingertips—it is hard to suggest that the president would, in

hindsight, wish he had

not pit an ardent campaign against his major challenger, Mr. Jonathan.

Juxtaposing the current state of his presidency with the euphoria that

greeted his

emergence as winner of the historic 2015 elections, here are some low-hanging

fruits that require no legislation that Mr. Buhari should have plucked to assert

himself clearly as a leader who has both the moral and intellectual

astuteness to

effect the fundamental changes Nigerians have long craved.

Disclosure of Asset

Mr. Buhari is arguably the first-ever Nigerian leader that was elected

into office on

the perceived strength of his character as a conviction politician that could

decisively deal with corruption —Nigeria's worst bane.

To further convince Nigerians that he was, indeed, a frugal and

incorruptible man,

Mr. Buhari, in one of his speeches, said he would publicly declare his

assets upon

assumption of office. He also said he would prevail on his appointees to do the

same.

Shortly after his swearing in, Nigerians began demanding copies of Mr. Buhari's

assets declaration documents as submitted to the Code of Conduct Bureau. And

the president began prevaricating about the matter immediately.

At first, he released a statement claiming to have fulfilled his public assets

declaration vow on June 6, 2015. That turned out to be misleading. Mr.

Buhari only

submitted his assets declaration form to the CCB as every government official is

mandated to do.

Under intense public pressure, the president released a statement

enumerating his

assets and those of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. The statement was at best

imprecise, with no clear details of listed assets. It failed to

provide addresses of

landed of properties, vehicle models, assets of spouse and children as

required by

law, and more. The presidency assured those details would be available to every

Nigerian once they were verified by the Code of Conduct Bureau.

The bureau has since done so, but Mr. Buhari still refuses to come

entirely clean on

how much he is worth, even though the Ahmed Joda transition committee advised

that immediate public declaration of assets would be a "quick win" for Messrs.

Buhari and Osinbajo.

Questioned during a presidential media chat in 2015, a visibly itchy president

questioned why he was singled out, from amongst the governors and

other political

leaders.

Till date, a day away from the government's first birthday, the

president has failed

to disclose his assets by sending the photocopies of what he submitted to CCB to

the media, as former President Umaru Yar'Adua did.

Reap as you vote

The ethnic and tribal sentiments that have for long been a feature of Nigeria's

elections were palpable in the outcome of the 2015 general elections.

The results

showed that while the people of the north embraced Mr. Buhari in large numbers,

those in the south-south and south-east overwhelmingly voted to keep "their

own" in office.

Notwithstanding, a plurality of Nigerians had expected that the president would

govern fairly and inclusively in order to heal whatever wound the election may

have left behind.

Alas, there's little evidence to show that Mr. Buhari did this.

Instead, he began by

appointing mainly northerners to the consternation of even those who were

amongst his staunchest allies. Mr. Buhari appointed dozens of aides in the first

weeks of his administration without ceding any of the positions to the

southeast.

Asked how he intended to implement an inclusive development of the south-

south, Mr. Buhari delved into the results of the elections, speaking of how the

limited support he received from the area would certainly reflect in his

government's policies and programmes to them.

When pressed on the consistent complaints of marginalisation by the South-East,,

a visibly irritated president asked in his maiden media chat on December 30,

2015: "What do the Igbos want?"

Public mood and local media

Upon assumption of office, President Buhari was met with incessant and

devastating attacks by suspected Boko Haram members. It took intense public

criticisms for him to issue a single statement condemning the attacks. He was

quiet most times. He showed similar reluctance with the herdsmen crisis across

the country. The killings in Agatu and other southern communities were not

condemned by the president for weeks. Most went without a single statement of

condolence from his office.

But the president was swift in condemning terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels,

Grand-Bassam and elsewhere.

Similarly, Mr. Buhari hardly speaks to local media. From when he would name his

ministers (in U.S.) to how he won't let the central bank devalue (in Paris) the

president has made most of the key pronouncements abroad. Talking to local

media would have helped him better understand and gauge public opinion.

Presidential Air Fleet

From a Boeing 737 to choppers, those who should know said there are about 11

aircraft in the presidential air fleet. His campaign assured Nigerians

that some of

those aircraft would be disposed of if the president won the

elections. Not one has

gone yet. Why Mr. Buhari has not sold any of them or even addressed Nigerians on

why he couldn't sell remained unclear.

Appointment of ministers

Mr. Buhari failed to appoint his ministers early. From the moment he

took over on

May 29, 2015, till October ending when he finally released names of

his prospective

ministers, Mr. Buhari claimed he was taking his time to appoint the best.

In hindsight, very few people believe the president's appointment was worth the

time he spent shopping for them. Some analysts have blamed the late

appointments partly for the declining state of the economy.

Given the prolonged fall in oil prices even before the elections, they argue,

appointing a top economic team early enough could have helped stabilise the

system and assure investors. The president missed that opportunity.

With budget, it's business as usual in Abuja.

Given that one of Mr. Buhari's rallying cries during the campaign was

a promise to

eliminate waste within his administration and streamline state agencies and

parastatals, history has recorded that Mr. Buhari's first budget was marred by

irregularities–embarrassing and administrative irregularities. It

failed to send the

much-needed signal to unscrupulous civil servants that a new sheriff

was indeed in

town. It was a disaster.

Being Nigeria's most effective salesman.

Of the 30 foreign trips Mr. Buhari made in his first year, hardly did

he return from

any without dropping a "bombshell". While some were inadvertent gaffes, too many

others were as deliberate as they were damaging.

Nigeria's president has travelled to distant lands to castigate his people as

"criminals", "corrupt" and "unruly" and even urged foreign investors to be wary.

Although a plurality of Nigerian foreign policy analysts have condemned the

president for his outbursts, some of his supporters say he was being

honest. That

could seem an afterthought. If the president does not want to sell

Nigeria–which is

actually part of his job– he should, at least, not de-market it.

Customs To Use N285/$ For Duty From June 1

The Nigerian Customs department announced today it will begin to use the rate

of N285 to the dollar for the calculation of duty on all imports from Wednesday

June 1, 2016.

It is a further evidence of the implicit adjustment of the value of the national

currency, the Naira which had remained artificially at N199 for almost a year.

The Central Bank said after Tuesday's meeting of the monetary policy

committee that it will work out modalities for the operation of the parallel

foreign exchange market in a move towards a more flexible exchange rate for

the Naira.

While the market awaits the rules being put in place by the apex bank, many

have been watching for signs that could help point them to the rate applicable

in the interbank market.

The Customs announcement today is perhaps the clearest sign yet that the rate

of exchange will be closer to N300 than the current official rate of N199 to the

US dollar.

Already oil importers have been advised that the rate governing the calibration

of the pump price of PMS will be N285 to the dollar for the time being.

APC Thanks Nigerians, Urges More Support For Buhari

Abuja – As The President Muhammadu Buhari Celebrates His First Anniversary

Today, His Party, The All Progressives Congress Apc Has Thanked

Nigerians For Their

Support In The Past 12 Months, Promising To Do More To Improve On

Their Wellbeing.

In A Statement Signed By Its Chairman, Chief John Odigie-oyegun, Apc Said The

President Has Creditably Discharged The Confidence Reposed In Him

During The Last

General Elections.

The Statement Reads In Part;

"twelve Months Ago, President Muhammadu Buhari Was Sworn Into Office After The

Decisive Victory Of Our Great Party In The General Elections That

Marked 16 Years Of

Unbroken Democratic Rule In Nigeria.

"on Behalf Of The National Working Committee, Elders, Leaders And The Teeming

Members Of Our Party, I Wish To Convey My Immeasurable Gratitude To Our Fellow

Compatriots For Their Unprecedented Confidence And Trust In President Muhammadu

Buhari And The Party.

"the Apc Assures All Nigerians That The Party And The President Hold As Very

Sacred This Collective Trust, Which The President Has So Creditably

Discharged This

Past One Year.

"president Buhari Has, In The Last Year, Worked Hard To Repair

Nigeria's Previously

Tarnished Image In The International Community; Restored The

Territorial Integrity Of

Our Country By Ensuring The Containment Of The Erstwhile Rampaging Boko Haram

Insurgency And Has Waged An Unrelenting And Vigorous War Against Corruption As

He Promised In His Electioneering Campaign.

"the President, Being Fully Aware Of The Tough Economic Challenges Facing

Nigerians, Has Directed His Focus On The Salvaging Of Our Battered And Prostrate

Economy.

"the Very Parlous State Of The Economy Inherited By This

Administration, Which Has

Been Further Battered By The Collapse Of The Price Of Crude Oil And The Massive

Corruption By The Past Administration, Does Not Need Any Further Restating.

However, The Government Has Courageously Faced These Challenges By Taking Tough

Decisions Necessary To Bring Our Economy Back To Buoyancy And Self-sustaining

Growth.

"one Of Such Tough But Inevitable Decisions Is The Liberalization Of

The Petroleum

Downstream Sector And The Consequent Hike In Petrol Price Which Led To

A Call Out

Of Workers On An Indefinite Strike By Organised Labour.

"we Thank Nigerians For Their Understanding Of The Situation And Also Organised

Labour For Resuming Negotiation With Government.

"i Want To Assure That The Apc Administration Of President Buhari

Holds Your Trust

To Be Sacred And Will Do All That Is Humanly Possible To Ensure That These Tough

Times Do Not Last. The 2016 Budget Which Includes N500 Billion

Dedicated To Social

Intervention Will Begin To Have Positive Impact Very Soon.

"i Call On All Our Compatriots To Put Aside Any Differences And Join

With President

Muhammadu Buhari To Design And Lay A Strong Foundation For A New Economy That

Assures Self-sustaining Growth And Shared Prosperity For Our People.

In The Words

Of Our Dear President Buhari, 'this Generation Of Nigerians And Indeed

All Nigerians

Have No Other Country To Call Our Own, We Must Work Together To Salvage It".

Sharia Court Bill: Leo Ogor Speaks - "Nobody Is Expanding Sharia To Anywhere"

Do not panic over Sharia court bill –Reps

The House of Representatives doused tension on Friday after a bill to expand the

jurisdiction of the Sharia Court of Appeal ignited fears that

lawmakers were about

to expand Sharia Law to cover the entire country.

The constitution amendment bill, which was sponsored by a member from Sokoto

State, Mr. Abdullahi Salame, had passed second reading on the floor of

the House.

The Speaker, Mr. Yakubu Dogara, who presided over the session, had allowed the

bill to scale second reading without debate on the grounds of its "sensitive"

nature.

The House had also noted that since it was a constitution amendment bill, it

should be referred to the Ad Hoc Committee on Constitution Review where it

would be adequately discussed.

However, the passage of the bill raised fears after the term "jurisdiction" was

reportedly misconstrued for expanding Sharia Law to states other than where it

currently applies.

In his proposal, Salame sought to amend sections 262 and 277 of the 1999

Constitution to add "criminal" to the existing provisions.

Explaining the purpose of the bill, the Minority Leader of the House,

Mr. Leo Ogor,

a Christian, allayed fears that it was about expanding Sharia Law to

other states.

Rather, he explained that bill merely sought to increase the existing

powers of the

court to include criminal cases.

Ogor said, "The 'jurisdiction' of the court referred to in sections

262 and 277 of the

constitution means the powers of the court in states where it already

exists, not

expanding Sharia to other parts of the country, no.

"The amendment sought to these sections is to add 'criminal' to the existing

jurisdiction it has on 'civil litigation.' That is the jurisdiction

that is being

expanded, not the expansion of Sharia Law itself."

On why the bill was not debated, Ogor said, "The matter was not debated because

the amendment is a constitutional amendment on a matter that could be better

handled by the constitution review committee.

"Debating it on the floor will not resolve it since the Ad Hoc Committee on

Constitution Review will still conduct a public hearing on it.

"Those concerned will be invited to come and give their opinions on

how the added

powers of the court will affect them and so on.

"Nobody is expanding Sharia to anywhere. Members of the public should not panic

over this at all."

See The Mystery Of Sins And Forgiveness

If Jesus died on the cross and spent three days in hell to pay for the

sins of the

world, then why would we have to go to hell ourselves and pay for them again?

God is then, in essence, being paid for our sins twice. With that

said, was Jesus'

sacrifice not worthy enough? If that is the case, why should we care

that he died

for our sins if his sacrifice means nothing at all?

Your contributions would go a long way in helping out a lot of

faithless souls out

there

Saturday, 28 May 2016

Why 'Carrying Placards In Search Of Jobs' Is Wrong

There are few cases of job seekers carrying

placards lately at strategic spots and this has hit

the media. A lady has even met with the vice

president for doing this. Is this right? A few

points would argue it.

1. Carrying placards in search for jobs undermines

the progress made in job application process

which has gone online and is quite efficient.

2. Jobs given could be regarded as out of pity

and unprofessional as it might have been created

to help the placarder otherwise it would be

advertised.

3.Giving placarders jobs discredits the effort of

hundreds of thousand of Nigerian graduates who

have looked beyond the employment situation to

be self employed and entrepreneurs.

4. Even if jobs given were advertised, there would

be so many applicants who have taken out time

to write application letters and applied through

prescribed means. Why give it to someone who

did not even search?

5. Considering the present employment situation

in the country, young unemployed graduates could

go on the streets with placards in search of jobs.

They soon will form a body and cause unrest if

left to go on unchecked.

What is the way out?

-The government of the day should regret the

situation the labour market is in today.

-The government of the day should declare a

state of emergency on employment and create

jobs for graduates.

-When jobs are given through this means of

carrying placards, it should be kept off the media

so as not to encourage others to do the same.